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Registros recuperados: 11 | |
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Peterson, Garry D; McGill University; garry.peterson@mcgill.ca; Beard Jr., T. Douglas; Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources; BEARDT@dnr.state.wi.us; Beisner, Beatrix E; University of Wisconsin-Madison; bebeisner@facstaff.wisc.edu; Bennett, Elena M; University of Wisconsin-Madison; embennett@wisc.edu; Carpenter, Stephen R; University of Wisconsin-Madison; srcarpen@wisc.edu; Cumming, Graeme; University of Florida; cummingg@wec.ufl.edu; Dent, C. Lisa; University of Wisconsin-Madison; ldent@facstaff.wisc.edu,; Havlicek, Tanya D; University of Wisconsin-Madison; TDHAVLIC@students.wisc.edu. |
The Northern Highlands Lake District of Wisconsin is in transition from a sparsely settled region to a more densely populated one. Expected changes offer benefits to northern Wisconsin residents but also threaten to degrade the ecological services they rely on. Because the future of this region is uncertain, it is difficult to make decisions that will avoid potential risks and take advantage of potential opportunities. We adopt a scenario planning approach to cope with this problem of prediction. We use an ecological assessment framework developed by the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment to determine key social and ecological driving forces in the Northern Highlands Lake District. From these, we describe three alternative scenarios to the year 2025 in which... |
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports |
Palavras-chave: Northern Highlands Lake District; Wisconsin; Assessment; Ecosystem services; Freshwater; Futures; Prediction; Scenario planning. |
Ano: 2003 |
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Carpenter, Stephen R; University of Wisconsin-Madison; srcarpen@wisc.edu; Brock, William; University of Wisconsin; brock@macc.wisc.edu; Hanson, Paul; University of Wisconsin; pchanson@facstaff.wisc.edu. |
Simulation models were developed to explore and illustrate dynamics of socioecological systems. The ecosystem is a lake subject to phosphorus pollution. Phosphorus flows from agriculture to upland soils, to surface waters, where it cycles between water and sediments. The ecosystem is multistable, and moves among domains of attraction depending on the history of pollutant inputs. The alternative states yield different economic benefits. Agents form expectations about ecosystem dynamics, markets, and/or the actions of managers, and choose levels of pollutant inputs accordingly. Agents have heterogeneous beliefs and/or access to information. Their aggregate behavior determines the total rate of pollutant input. As the ecosystem changes, agents update their... |
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports |
Palavras-chave: Adaptive agent models; Adaptive management; Bounded rationality; Ecological economics; Ecosystem oscillations; Integrated models; Lake eutrophication; Nonpoint pollution; Phosphorus cycles; Simulation models; Social-natural systems.. |
Ano: 1999 |
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Walker, Brian; CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems; Brian.Walker@csiro.au; Carpenter, Stephen R; University of Wisconsin-Madison; srcarpen@wisc.edu; Anderies, John M; Arizona State University; m.anderies@asu.edu; Abel, Nick; CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems; nick.abel@csiro.au; Cumming, Graeme; University of Florida; cummingg@wec.ufl.edu; Janssen, Marco A; Indiana University; maajanss@indiana.edu; Lebel, Louis; Unit for Social and Environmental Research; llebel@loxinfo.co.th; Norberg, Jon; Department of Systems Ecology, Stockholm University; jon.norberg@ecology.su.se; Peterson, Garry D; McGill University; garry.peterson@mcgill.ca; Pritchard, Rusty; Emory University; lpritc2@emory.edu. |
Approaches to natural resource management are often based on a presumed ability to predict probabilistic responses to management and external drivers such as climate. They also tend to assume that the manager is outside the system being managed. However, where the objectives include long-term sustainability, linked social-ecological systems (SESs) behave as complex adaptive systems, with the managers as integral components of the system. Moreover, uncertainties are large and it may be difficult to reduce them as fast as the system changes. Sustainability involves maintaining the functionality of a system when it is perturbed, or maintaining the elements needed to renew or reorganize if a large perturbation radically alters structure and function. The... |
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports |
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Ano: 2002 |
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Registros recuperados: 11 | |
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